SF

Toronto Shelter Forecast

Operational demand, unmet callers, capacity pressure, and forecast uncertainty
-occupancy now
-utilisation
-need MAE model / persist
-data through

Forecast console

Pressure, capacity, and turn-away risk in one operational view.

The model separates housed occupancy from total need so the capacity ceiling does not hide unmet demand. Use the time window to move from long trend to dispatch-level pressure.

Unmet demand

Total need = housed occupancy + unmatched callers. This is the clearest signal of pressure beyond available capacity.

need signal

System occupancy

All programs aggregated into one daily total, benchmarked against persistence.

beds + rooms

Turn-away pressure

Unmatched callers are people Central Intake could not place in a bed.

callers / day
Source. City of Toronto Open Data: Daily Shelter & Overnight Service Occupancy & Capacity, Central Intake service queue/wrap-up codes, and Open-Meteo weather.